POLYCAB
Polycab India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Polycab India (POLYCAB) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is POLYCAB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Polycab India (POLYCAB) trades at ₹10,022,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.
On the numbers, Polycab India (POLYCAB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 60.0× earnings, ROE of 23.0%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
POLYCAB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is POLYCAB overvalued? POLYCAB P/E vs its Capital Goods
POLYCAB's P/E of 60.0× sits below the Capital Goods peer median of 66.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.47% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.14%.
POLYCAB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of POLYCAB history (17%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POLYCAB 2027 | ₹7,234 | ₹11,188 | ₹17,506 | +11% |
| POLYCAB 2028 | ₹6,764 | ₹12,427 | ₹22,839 | +23% |
| POLYCAB 2029 | ₹6,489 | ₹14,081 | ₹29,148 | +40% |
| POLYCAB 2030 | ₹6,523 | ₹15,582 | ₹36,382 | +55% |
| POLYCAB 2031 | ₹6,590 | ₹17,406 | ₹44,270 | +73% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability POLYCAB goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for POLYCAB
- High return on equity (23.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (33.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹11,188 (+11%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹29,148.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 60.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 12.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6,489.
POLYCAB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years POLYCAB compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹7,234–₹17,506, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
POLYCAB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
POLYCAB price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds POLYCAB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the POLYCAB price target & forecast page.
POLYCAB Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. POLYCAB scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
POLYCAB MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy POLYCAB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 31.0% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 26.4% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.0% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the POLYCAB MTF page.
POLYCAB vs peers,Capital Goods comparison
About Polycab India: sector, index & market-cap context
Polycab India (POLYCAB) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.51L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the POLYCAB Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Polycab India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
POLYCAB analysis, FAQs
Is Polycab India (POLYCAB) a good buy?
On the numbers, Polycab India (POLYCAB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 60.0× earnings, ROE of 23.0%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is POLYCAB overvalued or undervalued?
POLYCAB trades at 60.0× earnings versus a peer median of 66.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Capital Goods peers.
What is the POLYCAB share price target for 2031?
POLYCAB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹17,406, with an 80% range of ₹6,590–₹44,270 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability POLYCAB doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of POLYCAB reaching ₹20,166 (2×) within 5 years is 42%.
What is the bull case for POLYCAB?
High return on equity (23.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (33.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹11,188 (+11%).
What are the risks in POLYCAB?
A rich 60.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 12.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.