Case study

POLYCAB

POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +8.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

52Score

POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is POLYCAB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) trades at ₹9,315,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.

On the numbers, POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 48.9× earnings, ROE of 23.0%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

POLYCAB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.40L Cr
Current price
₹9,315
P/E ratio
48.9×
P/B ratio
11.67×
Book value
₹798
Dividend yield
0.50%
ROCE
33.2%
ROE
23.0%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How POLYCAB ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is POLYCAB overvalued? POLYCAB P/E vs its Capital Goods

POLYCAB's P/E of 48.9× sits below the Capital Goods peer median of 58.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.50% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.46%.

POLYCAB P/E
48.9×
Peer median P/E
58.0×
POLYCAB div yield
0.50%
Peer median yield
0.46%

POLYCAB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 7.2y of POLYCAB history (37%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
POLYCAB 2027₹6,422₹10,037₹15,686+9%
POLYCAB 2028₹5,796₹10,928₹20,605+19%
POLYCAB 2029₹5,609₹11,899₹25,244+29%
POLYCAB 2030₹5,441₹12,956₹30,849+41%
POLYCAB 2031₹5,297₹14,107₹37,570+53%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability POLYCAB goes up, or doubles?

60%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
71%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
37%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹18,436 within 5 years

The bull case for POLYCAB

  • POLYCAB's return on equity of 23.0% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • POLYCAB's return on capital employed of 33.2% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹25,244.

The bear case & risks

  • POLYCAB's P/E of 48.5x is lower than 27% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 11.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹5,609.

POLYCAB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 7.2 years POLYCAB compounded at 37%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹6,422-₹15,686, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

POLYCAB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 7.2 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
8.9%
80% range₹6,422-₹15,686
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.1%
80% range₹5,609-₹25,244
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)23%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
53.0%
80% range₹5,297-₹37,570
P(price ↑)71%
P(price 2×)37%

POLYCAB price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
POLYCAB simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds POLYCAB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the POLYCAB price target & forecast page.

POLYCAB Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. POLYCAB scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

POLYCAB MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy POLYCAB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.06%3.7×
Zerodha26.00%3.8×
Groww26.10%3.8×
Dhan24.00%4.2×
Kotak Neo25.00%4.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST23.58%4.2×
Pocketful30.77%3.2×
Anand Rathi30.53%3.3×
Bajaj Broking25.00%4.0×
Share India30.63%3.3×

Compare every broker on the POLYCAB MTF page.

POLYCAB vs peers,Capital Goods comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
POLYCAB (this stock)48.9×0.50%₹1.40L Cr
SIEMENS50.0×0.46%₹1.40L Cr
BHEL58.0×0.35%₹1.41L Cr
CUMMINSIND61.7×1.22%₹1.50L Cr
ABB104.0×0.52%₹1.61L Cr
CGPOWER109.0×0.15%₹1.38L Cr
KEI53.7×0.08%₹53,536 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Capital Goods sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.40L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the POLYCAB Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

POLYCAB analysis, FAQs

Is POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) a good buy?

On the numbers, POLYCAB INDIA LIMITED (POLYCAB) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 48.9× earnings, ROE of 23.0%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is POLYCAB overvalued or undervalued?

POLYCAB trades at 48.9× earnings versus a peer median of 58.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Capital Goods peers.

What is the POLYCAB share price target for 2031?

POLYCAB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹14,107, with an 80% range of ₹5,297-₹37,570 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability POLYCAB doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of POLYCAB reaching ₹18,436 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.

What is the bull case for POLYCAB?

POLYCAB's return on equity of 23.0% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. POLYCAB's return on capital employed of 33.2% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in POLYCAB?

POLYCAB's P/E of 48.5x is lower than 27% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 11.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on POLYCAB