HINDALCO
Hindalco Industries Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HINDALCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) trades at ₹1,060,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 73/100.
On the numbers, Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 73/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.4× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HINDALCO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How HINDALCO ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- HINDALCO's market cap of 2.38L Cr ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's book value of ₹608 ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's promoter holding of 34.7% ranks in the 12th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 19.0% ranks in the 55th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's 3-year revenue growth of 7.0% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is HINDALCO overvalued? HINDALCO P/E vs its Metals
HINDALCO's P/E of 11.4× sits below the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.47% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.91%.
HINDALCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of HINDALCO history (20%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HINDALCO 2027 | ₹800 | ₹1,150 | ₹1,652 | +9% |
| HINDALCO 2028 | ₹741 | ₹1,248 | ₹2,101 | +18% |
| HINDALCO 2029 | ₹717 | ₹1,354 | ₹2,555 | +28% |
| HINDALCO 2030 | ₹714 | ₹1,469 | ₹3,021 | +39% |
| HINDALCO 2031 | ₹706 | ₹1,594 | ₹3,600 | +50% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HINDALCO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HINDALCO
- HINDALCO's P/E of 11.4x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HINDALCO's return on equity of 13.0% ranks in the 64th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,150 (+9%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,555.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹717.
HINDALCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years HINDALCO compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹800-₹1,652, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HINDALCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HINDALCO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HINDALCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HINDALCO price target & forecast page.
HINDALCO Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HINDALCO scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
HINDALCO MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HINDALCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 25.70% | 3.9× |
| Zerodha | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Groww | 24.86% | 4.0× |
| Dhan | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 22.22% | 4.5× |
| Paytm Money | 22.25% | 4.5× |
| Pocketful | 29.38% | 3.4× |
| Fyers | 30.30% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 29.26% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Share India | 29.19% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the HINDALCO MTF page.
HINDALCO vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HINDALCO (this stock) | 11.4× | 0.47% | ₹2.38L Cr |
| TATASTEEL | 19.8× | 2.13% | ₹2.34L Cr |
| VEDL | 9.9× | 12.20% | ₹1.09L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 36.4× | 0.18% | ₹1.13L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 26.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.18L Cr |
| SAIL | 15.1× | 0.91% | ₹72,937 Cr |
| NATIONALUM | 10.4× | 3.02% | ₹69,976 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Hindalco Industries Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.38L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the HINDALCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindalco Industries Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HINDALCO analysis, FAQs
Is Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 73/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.4× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HINDALCO overvalued or undervalued?
HINDALCO trades at 11.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.
What is the HINDALCO share price target for 2031?
HINDALCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,594, with an 80% range of ₹706-₹3,600 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HINDALCO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HINDALCO reaching ₹2,119 (2×) within 5 years is 33%.
What is the bull case for HINDALCO?
HINDALCO's P/E of 11.4x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HINDALCO's return on equity of 13.0% ranks in the 64th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,150 (+9%).
What are the risks in HINDALCO?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.