NATIONALUM
National Aluminium
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NATIONALUM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) trades at ₹378,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100.
On the numbers, National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 29.4%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NATIONALUM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NATIONALUM overvalued? NATIONALUM P/E vs its Metals
NATIONALUM's P/E of 12.0× sits below the Metals peer median of 18.8×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.78% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.92%.
NATIONALUM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NATIONALUM history (35%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONALUM 2027 | ₹290 | ₹489 | ₹824 | +30% |
| NATIONALUM 2028 | ₹309 | ₹643 | ₹1,346 | +71% |
| NATIONALUM 2029 | ₹337 | ₹840 | ₹2,047 | +123% |
| NATIONALUM 2030 | ₹388 | ₹1,088 | ₹3,049 | +189% |
| NATIONALUM 2031 | ₹451 | ₹1,419 | ₹4,506 | +277% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NATIONALUM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NATIONALUM
- Trades at just 12.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (29.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (39.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.8% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 74% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹489 (+30%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,047.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹337.
NATIONALUM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NATIONALUM compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹290–₹824, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NATIONALUM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NATIONALUM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NATIONALUM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NATIONALUM price target & forecast page.
NATIONALUM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NATIONALUM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NATIONALUM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NATIONALUM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 34.9% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 29.8% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 27.9% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the NATIONALUM MTF page.
NATIONALUM vs peers,Metals comparison
About National Aluminium: sector, index & market-cap context
National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹69,480 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the NATIONALUM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of National Aluminium's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NATIONALUM analysis, FAQs
Is National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) a good buy?
On the numbers, National Aluminium (NATIONALUM) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 29.4%, a 74% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NATIONALUM overvalued or undervalued?
NATIONALUM trades at 12.0× earnings versus a peer median of 18.8×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.
What is the NATIONALUM share price target for 2031?
NATIONALUM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,419, with an 80% range of ₹451–₹4,506 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NATIONALUM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NATIONALUM reaching ₹752 (2×) within 5 years is 76%.
What is the bull case for NATIONALUM?
Trades at just 12.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (29.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (39.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in NATIONALUM?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.