NATIONALUM
National Aluminium Company Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NATIONALUM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) trades at ₹381,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.
On the numbers, National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 29.4%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NATIONALUM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NATIONALUM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NATIONALUM's market cap of 69,976 Cr ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's book value of ₹118 ranks in the 57th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's promoter holding of 51.3% ranks in the 33rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 59.0% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's 3-year revenue growth of 8.0% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for NATIONALUM, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is NATIONALUM overvalued? NATIONALUM P/E vs its Metals
NATIONALUM's P/E of 10.4× sits below the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.02% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.91%.
NATIONALUM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NATIONALUM history (21%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONALUM 2027 | ₹225 | ₹379 | ₹637 | -1% |
| NATIONALUM 2028 | ₹179 | ₹377 | ₹792 | -1% |
| NATIONALUM 2029 | ₹152 | ₹375 | ₹926 | -2% |
| NATIONALUM 2030 | ₹131 | ₹373 | ₹1,062 | -2% |
| NATIONALUM 2031 | ₹116 | ₹371 | ₹1,185 | -3% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NATIONALUM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NATIONALUM
- NATIONALUM's P/E of 10.4x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's return on equity of 29.4% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's return on capital employed of 39.6% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATIONALUM's dividend yield of 3.0% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹926.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹152.
NATIONALUM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NATIONALUM compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹225-₹637, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NATIONALUM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NATIONALUM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NATIONALUM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NATIONALUM price target & forecast page.
NATIONALUM Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NATIONALUM scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
NATIONALUM MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NATIONALUM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 31.20% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 29.50% | 3.4× |
| Groww | 29.63% | 3.4× |
| Dhan | 27.66% | 3.6× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 27.62% | 3.6× |
| Paytm Money | 27.81% | 3.6× |
| Pocketful | 34.96% | 2.9× |
| Anand Rathi | 34.66% | 2.9× |
| Bajaj Broking | 29.00% | 3.4× |
| Share India | 34.81% | 2.9× |
Compare every broker on the NATIONALUM MTF page.
NATIONALUM vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONALUM (this stock) | 10.4× | 3.02% | ₹69,976 Cr |
| TATASTEEL | 19.8× | 2.13% | ₹2.34L Cr |
| VEDL | 9.9× | 12.20% | ₹1.09L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 36.4× | 0.18% | ₹1.13L Cr |
| HINDALCO | 11.4× | 0.47% | ₹2.38L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 26.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.18L Cr |
| SAIL | 15.1× | 0.91% | ₹72,937 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About National Aluminium Company Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹69,976 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NATIONALUM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of National Aluminium Company Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NATIONALUM analysis, FAQs
Is National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) a good buy?
On the numbers, National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 29.4%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NATIONALUM overvalued or undervalued?
NATIONALUM trades at 10.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.
What is the NATIONALUM share price target for 2031?
NATIONALUM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹371, with an 80% range of ₹116-₹1,185 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NATIONALUM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NATIONALUM reaching ₹762 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.
What is the bull case for NATIONALUM?
NATIONALUM's P/E of 10.4x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NATIONALUM's return on equity of 29.4% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NATIONALUM's return on capital employed of 39.6% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in NATIONALUM?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.