VEDL
Vedanta
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Vedanta (VEDL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is VEDL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Vedanta (VEDL) trades at ₹306,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.
On the numbers, Vedanta (VEDL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.8× earnings, ROE of 19.0%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
VEDL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is VEDL overvalued? VEDL P/E vs its Metals
VEDL's P/E of 13.8× sits below the Metals peer median of 18.8×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 14.20% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.92%.
VEDL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of VEDL history (-22%/yr drift, 82%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEDL 2027 | ₹61 | ₹173 | ₹497 | -42% |
| VEDL 2028 | ₹22 | ₹99 | ₹441 | -67% |
| VEDL 2029 | ₹9 | ₹58 | ₹350 | -81% |
| VEDL 2030 | ₹4 | ₹33 | ₹276 | -89% |
| VEDL 2031 | ₹2 | ₹19 | ₹200 | -94% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability VEDL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for VEDL
- Trades at just 13.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (19.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Pays a 14.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹350.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (82%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹9.
VEDL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years VEDL compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 82%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹61–₹497, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
VEDL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
VEDL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds VEDL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the VEDL price target & forecast page.
VEDL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. VEDL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
VEDL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VEDL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 27.6% | 3.6× |
| Groww | 27.6% | 3.6× |
| Dhan | 42.0% | 2.4× |
Compare every broker on the VEDL MTF page.
VEDL vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| VEDL (this stock) | 13.8× | 14.20% | ₹1.20L Cr |
| TATASTEEL | 22.0× | 2.01% | ₹2.48L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 28.6× | 0.18% | ₹1.15L Cr |
| HINDALCO | 13.0× | 0.49% | ₹2.28L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 34.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.13L Cr |
| SAIL | 18.8× | 0.92% | ₹72,222 Cr |
| NATIONALUM | 12.0× | 2.78% | ₹69,480 Cr |
About Vedanta: sector, index & market-cap context
Vedanta (VEDL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.20L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the VEDL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Vedanta's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
VEDL analysis, FAQs
Is Vedanta (VEDL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Vedanta (VEDL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.8× earnings, ROE of 19.0%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is VEDL overvalued or undervalued?
VEDL trades at 13.8× earnings versus a peer median of 18.8×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.
What is the VEDL share price target for 2031?
VEDL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹19, with an 80% range of ₹2–₹200 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability VEDL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of VEDL reaching ₹602 (2×) within 5 years is 3%.
What is the bull case for VEDL?
Trades at just 13.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (19.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Pays a 14.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in VEDL?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (82%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.