VEDL
VEDANTA LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is VEDL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) trades at ₹279,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.
On the numbers, VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.9× earnings, ROE of 38.2%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
VEDL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How VEDL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- VEDL's market cap of 1.09L Cr ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's book value of ₹127 ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's promoter holding of 54.7% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 17.0% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's 3-year revenue growth of -19.0% ranks in the bottom 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66x is lower than 26% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is VEDL overvalued? VEDL P/E vs its Metals
VEDL's P/E of 9.9× sits below the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 12.20% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.91%.
VEDL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of VEDL history (5%/yr drift, 82%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEDL 2027 | ₹83 | ₹240 | ₹691 | -14% |
| VEDL 2028 | ₹46 | ₹207 | ₹926 | -26% |
| VEDL 2029 | ₹29 | ₹178 | ₹1,101 | -36% |
| VEDL 2030 | ₹19 | ₹153 | ₹1,244 | -45% |
| VEDL 2031 | ₹12 | ₹132 | ₹1,418 | -53% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability VEDL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for VEDL
- VEDL's P/E of 9.9x is lower than 86% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's return on equity of 38.2% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- VEDL's dividend yield of 12.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,101.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (82%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹29.
VEDL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years VEDL compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 82%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹83-₹691, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
VEDL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
VEDL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds VEDL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the VEDL price target & forecast page.
VEDL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. VEDL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
VEDL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VEDL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 27.40% | 3.6× |
| Groww | 27.49% | 3.6× |
| Dhan | 42.00% | 2.4× |
| Paytm Money | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Pocketful | 32.52% | 3.1× |
| Fyers | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Anand Rathi | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| Bajaj Broking | 42.00% | 2.4× |
| Share India | 32.26% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the VEDL MTF page.
VEDL vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| VEDL (this stock) | 9.9× | 12.20% | ₹1.09L Cr |
| TATASTEEL | 19.8× | 2.13% | ₹2.34L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 36.4× | 0.18% | ₹1.13L Cr |
| HINDALCO | 11.4× | 0.47% | ₹2.38L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 26.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.18L Cr |
| SAIL | 15.1× | 0.91% | ₹72,937 Cr |
| NATIONALUM | 10.4× | 3.02% | ₹69,976 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About VEDANTA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.09L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the VEDL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of VEDANTA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
VEDL analysis, FAQs
Is VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) a good buy?
On the numbers, VEDANTA LIMITED (VEDL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.9× earnings, ROE of 38.2%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is VEDL overvalued or undervalued?
VEDL trades at 9.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.
What is the VEDL share price target for 2031?
VEDL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹132, with an 80% range of ₹12-₹1,418 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability VEDL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of VEDL reaching ₹558 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.
What is the bull case for VEDL?
VEDL's P/E of 9.9x is lower than 86% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. VEDL's return on equity of 38.2% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. VEDL's dividend yield of 12.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in VEDL?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (82%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.