Case study

SAIL

Steel Authority Of India Limited

Mixed signals1y model +4.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SAIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) trades at ₹177,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SAIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹72,937 Cr
Current price
₹177
P/E ratio
15.1×
P/B ratio
1.21×
Book value
₹146
Dividend yield
0.91%
ROCE
7.8%
ROE
6.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How SAIL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is SAIL overvalued? SAIL P/E vs its Metals

SAIL's P/E of 15.1× sits above the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.91% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.91%.

SAIL P/E
15.1×
Peer median P/E
15.1×
SAIL div yield
0.91%
Peer median yield
0.91%

SAIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SAIL history (13%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SAIL 2027₹116₹184₹291+4%
SAIL 2028₹101₹192₹365+9%
SAIL 2029₹90₹200₹443+13%
SAIL 2030₹83₹209₹523+18%
SAIL 2031₹78₹218₹610+23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SAIL goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
60%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹353 within 5 years

The bull case for SAIL

  • SAIL's P/E of 15.1x is lower than 74% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.21×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹443.

The bear case & risks

  • SAIL's return on equity of 6.4% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹90.

SAIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SAIL compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹116-₹291, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SAIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹116-₹291
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.4%
80% range₹90-₹443
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.3%
80% range₹78-₹610
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)28%

SAIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SAIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SAIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SAIL price target & forecast page.

SAIL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SAIL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

SAIL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SAIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox28.91%3.5×
Zerodha27.60%3.6×
Groww27.65%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.37%3.9×
Kotak Neo25.38%3.9×
Paytm Money26.28%3.8×
Pocketful32.63%3.1×
Anand Rathi32.37%3.1×
Bajaj Broking40.00%2.5×
Share India32.33%3.1×

Compare every broker on the SAIL MTF page.

SAIL vs peers,Metals comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SAIL (this stock)15.1×0.91%₹72,937 Cr
TATASTEEL19.8×2.13%₹2.34L Cr
VEDL9.9×12.20%₹1.09L Cr
JINDALSTEL36.4×0.18%₹1.13L Cr
HINDALCO11.4×0.47%₹2.38L Cr
JSWSTEEL26.4×0.55%₹3.18L Cr
NATIONALUM10.4×3.02%₹69,976 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Steel Authority Of India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹72,937 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SAIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Steel Authority Of India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SAIL analysis, FAQs

Is Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Steel Authority Of India Limited (SAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?

SAIL trades at 15.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens richer than its Metals peers.

What is the SAIL share price target for 2031?

SAIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹218, with an 80% range of ₹78-₹610 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SAIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SAIL reaching ₹353 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for SAIL?

SAIL's P/E of 15.1x is lower than 74% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.21×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in SAIL?

SAIL's return on equity of 6.4% ranks in the 34th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on SAIL