SAIL
SAIL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
SAIL (SAIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SAIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
SAIL (SAIL) trades at ₹175,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.
On the numbers, SAIL (SAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SAIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is SAIL overvalued? SAIL P/E vs its Metals
SAIL's P/E of 18.8× sits above the Metals peer median of 18.8×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.92% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.92%.
SAIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SAIL history (9%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIL 2027 | ₹118 | ₹184 | ₹292 | +2% |
| SAIL 2028 | ₹98 | ₹188 | ₹365 | +5% |
| SAIL 2029 | ₹87 | ₹194 | ₹429 | +8% |
| SAIL 2030 | ₹79 | ₹201 | ₹502 | +12% |
| SAIL 2031 | ₹74 | ₹207 | ₹575 | +15% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SAIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SAIL
- A 18.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹429.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 6.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹87.
SAIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years SAIL compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹118–₹292, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SAIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SAIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SAIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SAIL price target & forecast page.
SAIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SAIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
SAIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SAIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 33.0% | 3.0× |
| Zerodha | 28.1% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.9% | 3.9× |
Compare every broker on the SAIL MTF page.
SAIL vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAIL (this stock) | 18.8× | 0.92% | ₹72,222 Cr |
| TATASTEEL | 22.0× | 2.01% | ₹2.48L Cr |
| VEDL | 13.8× | 14.20% | ₹1.20L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 28.6× | 0.18% | ₹1.15L Cr |
| HINDALCO | 13.0× | 0.49% | ₹2.28L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 34.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.13L Cr |
| NATIONALUM | 12.0× | 2.78% | ₹69,480 Cr |
About SAIL: sector, index & market-cap context
SAIL (SAIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹72,222 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the SAIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SAIL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SAIL analysis, FAQs
Is SAIL (SAIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, SAIL (SAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 6.4%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?
SAIL trades at 18.8× earnings versus a peer median of 18.8×, so it screens richer than its Metals peers.
What is the SAIL share price target for 2031?
SAIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹207, with an 80% range of ₹74–₹575 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SAIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SAIL reaching ₹360 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for SAIL?
A 18.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in SAIL?
Return on equity is a soft 6.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.