TATASTEEL
TATA STEEL LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TATASTEEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) trades at ₹188,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.8× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on TATASTEEL
Here sits the classic steel puzzle: a P/E of 22 looks like growth pricing, but ROE of 11.7% and ROCE of 12.5% are mid-cycle returns, not compounder-grade ones. The market may be paying ahead for a cyclical upturn that has not yet shown in the earnings. The 2.01% yield offers some patience, but a Piotroski score of 4 out of 8 hints at soft operating momentum right now. Watch whether margins and free cash flow start validating that multiple, or whether it stays a hope trade on the cycle.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.
TATASTEEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How TATASTEEL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- TATASTEEL's market cap of 2.34L Cr ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's book value of ₹82 ranks in the 46th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's promoter holding of 32.9% ranks in the 10th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 10.0% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's 3-year revenue growth of -2.0% ranks in the 20th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90x is lower than 17% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is TATASTEEL overvalued? TATASTEEL P/E vs its Metals
TATASTEEL's P/E of 19.8× sits above the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.13% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.91%.
TATASTEEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TATASTEEL history (17%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TATASTEEL 2027 | ₹142 | ₹201 | ₹285 | +7% |
| TATASTEEL 2028 | ₹131 | ₹215 | ₹354 | +15% |
| TATASTEEL 2029 | ₹126 | ₹231 | ₹422 | +23% |
| TATASTEEL 2030 | ₹123 | ₹247 | ₹495 | +32% |
| TATASTEEL 2031 | ₹123 | ₹265 | ₹571 | +41% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TATASTEEL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TATASTEEL
- TATASTEEL's P/E of 19.8x is lower than 63% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TATASTEEL's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹422.
The bear case & risks
- TATASTEEL's return on equity of 11.7% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹126.
TATASTEEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years TATASTEEL compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹142-₹285, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TATASTEEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TATASTEEL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TATASTEEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TATASTEEL price target & forecast page.
TATASTEEL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TATASTEEL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
TATASTEEL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TATASTEEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 24.87% | 4.0× |
| Zerodha | 24.20% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.21% | 4.1× |
| Dhan | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 21.37% | 4.7× |
| Paytm Money | 21.49% | 4.7× |
| Pocketful | 28.64% | 3.5× |
| Anand Rathi | 28.35% | 3.5× |
| Bajaj Broking | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Share India | 28.41% | 3.5× |
Compare every broker on the TATASTEEL MTF page.
TATASTEEL vs peers,Metals comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| TATASTEEL (this stock) | 19.8× | 2.13% | ₹2.34L Cr |
| VEDL | 9.9× | 12.20% | ₹1.09L Cr |
| JINDALSTEL | 36.4× | 0.18% | ₹1.13L Cr |
| HINDALCO | 11.4× | 0.47% | ₹2.38L Cr |
| JSWSTEEL | 26.4× | 0.55% | ₹3.18L Cr |
| SAIL | 15.1× | 0.91% | ₹72,937 Cr |
| NATIONALUM | 10.4× | 3.02% | ₹69,976 Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About TATA STEEL LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.34L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the TATASTEEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of TATA STEEL LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TATASTEEL analysis, FAQs
Is TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) a good buy?
On the numbers, TATA STEEL LIMITED (TATASTEEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.8× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TATASTEEL overvalued or undervalued?
TATASTEEL trades at 19.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens richer than its Metals peers.
What is the TATASTEEL share price target for 2031?
TATASTEEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹265, with an 80% range of ₹123-₹571 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TATASTEEL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TATASTEEL reaching ₹375 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.
What is the bull case for TATASTEEL?
TATASTEEL's P/E of 19.8x is lower than 63% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. TATASTEEL's dividend yield of 2.1% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in TATASTEEL?
TATASTEEL's return on equity of 11.7% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.