Case study

JSWSTEEL

JSW STEEL LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +9.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

50Score

JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is JSWSTEEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) trades at ₹1,300,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100.

On the numbers, JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

JSWSTEEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3.18L Cr
Current price
₹1,300
P/E ratio
26.4×
P/B ratio
3.18×
Book value
₹409
Dividend yield
0.55%
ROCE
11.0%
ROE
10.2%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How JSWSTEEL ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener

Is JSWSTEEL overvalued? JSWSTEEL P/E vs its Metals

JSWSTEEL's P/E of 26.4× sits above the Metals peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.55% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.91%.

JSWSTEEL P/E
26.4×
Peer median P/E
15.1×
JSWSTEEL div yield
0.55%
Peer median yield
0.91%

JSWSTEEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of JSWSTEEL history (21%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
JSWSTEEL 2027₹1,036₹1,422₹1,952+9%
JSWSTEEL 2028₹992₹1,555₹2,439+20%
JSWSTEEL 2029₹976₹1,702₹2,966+31%
JSWSTEEL 2030₹987₹1,862₹3,513+43%
JSWSTEEL 2031₹998₹2,037₹4,158+57%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability JSWSTEEL goes up, or doubles?

65%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
79%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
32%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,599 within 5 years

The bull case for JSWSTEEL

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,422 (+9%).
  • Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,966.

The bear case & risks

  • JSWSTEEL's P/E of 26.4x is lower than 51% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • JSWSTEEL's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹976.

JSWSTEEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years JSWSTEEL compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,036-₹1,952, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

JSWSTEEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.4%
80% range₹1,036-₹1,952
P(price ↑)65%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
31.0%
80% range₹976-₹2,966
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
56.7%
80% range₹998-₹4,158
P(price ↑)79%
P(price 2×)32%

JSWSTEEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
JSWSTEEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds JSWSTEEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the JSWSTEEL price target & forecast page.

JSWSTEEL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. JSWSTEEL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

JSWSTEEL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy JSWSTEEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.62%4.2×
Zerodha23.10%4.3×
Groww23.09%4.3×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.12%5.0×
Paytm Money20.17%5.0×
Pocketful27.24%3.7×
Anand Rathi27.10%3.7×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India27.11%3.7×

Compare every broker on the JSWSTEEL MTF page.

JSWSTEEL vs peers,Metals comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
JSWSTEEL (this stock)26.4×0.55%₹3.18L Cr
TATASTEEL20.2×2.11%₹2.38L Cr
VEDL9.8×15.70%₹1.08L Cr
JINDALSTEL36.4×0.18%₹1.13L Cr
HINDALCO11.4×0.47%₹2.38L Cr
SAIL15.1×0.91%₹73,024 Cr
NATIONALUM10.4×3.02%₹69,976 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 8 Aug 2026

About JSW STEEL LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.18L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the JSWSTEEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of JSW STEEL LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

JSWSTEEL analysis, FAQs

Is JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, JSW STEEL LIMITED (JSWSTEEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 10.2%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is JSWSTEEL overvalued or undervalued?

JSWSTEEL trades at 26.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens richer than its Metals peers.

What is the JSWSTEEL share price target for 2031?

JSWSTEEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,037, with an 80% range of ₹998-₹4,158 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability JSWSTEEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of JSWSTEEL reaching ₹2,599 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.

What is the bull case for JSWSTEEL?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,422 (+9%). Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in JSWSTEEL?

JSWSTEEL's P/E of 26.4x is lower than 51% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. JSWSTEEL's return on equity of 10.2% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

More on JSWSTEEL