Case study

HINDZINC

Hindustan Zinc

Worth a closer look1y model -12.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HINDZINC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) trades at ₹573,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100.

On the numbers, Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.6× earnings, ROE of 76.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on HINDZINC

The real debate here is whether stellar returns on capital can survive a commodity cycle. A 76.6% ROE and 69.5% ROCE are extraordinary for any business, yet this is fundamentally a zinc miner whose earnings ride global metal prices, so the P/E of 17.6 is asking whether that profitability is durable or a high-price-moment snapshot. The near 2% yield rewards waiting, but the Piotroski score of 4 hints that recent operating momentum is mixed. Watch where zinc prices and the F-score head next.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.

HINDZINC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.42L Cr
Current price
₹573
P/E ratio
17.6×
P/B ratio
10.69×
Book value
₹54
Dividend yield
1.92%
ROCE
69.5%
ROE
76.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HINDZINC overvalued? HINDZINC P/E vs its Metals

HINDZINC's P/E of 17.6× sits below the Metals peer median of 18.8×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.92% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.92%.

HINDZINC P/E
17.6×
Peer median P/E
18.8×
HINDZINC div yield
1.92%
Peer median yield
0.92%

HINDZINC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HINDZINC history (-7%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HINDZINC 2027₹301₹503₹811-12%
HINDZINC 2028₹214₹429₹857-25%
HINDZINC 2029₹159₹371₹869-35%
HINDZINC 2030₹121₹324₹865-44%
HINDZINC 2031₹92₹284₹840-50%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HINDZINC goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
21%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
5%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,146 within 5 years

The bull case for HINDZINC

  • A 17.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (76.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (69.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹869.

The bear case & risks

  • A steep 10.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹159.

HINDZINC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HINDZINC compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹301₹811, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HINDZINC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.2%
80% range₹301–₹811
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
35.2%
80% range₹159–₹869
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)4%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
50.4%
80% range₹92–₹840
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)5%

HINDZINC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HINDZINC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HINDZINC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HINDZINC price target & forecast page.

HINDZINC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HINDZINC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HINDZINC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HINDZINC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.0%3.4×
Dhan42.0%2.4×

Compare every broker on the HINDZINC MTF page.

HINDZINC vs peers,Metals comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HINDZINC (this stock)17.6×1.92%₹2.42L Cr
TATASTEEL22.0×2.01%₹2.48L Cr
VEDL13.8×14.20%₹1.20L Cr
JINDALSTEL28.6×0.18%₹1.15L Cr
HINDALCO13.0×0.49%₹2.28L Cr
JSWSTEEL34.4×0.55%₹3.13L Cr
SAIL18.8×0.92%₹72,222 Cr

About Hindustan Zinc: sector, index & market-cap context

Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Metals sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.42L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the HINDZINC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindustan Zinc's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HINDZINC analysis, FAQs

Is Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hindustan Zinc (HINDZINC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.6× earnings, ROE of 76.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HINDZINC overvalued or undervalued?

HINDZINC trades at 17.6× earnings versus a peer median of 18.8×, so it screens cheaper than its Metals peers.

What is the HINDZINC share price target for 2031?

HINDZINC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹284, with an 80% range of ₹92₹840 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HINDZINC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HINDZINC reaching ₹1,146 (2×) within 5 years is 5%.

What is the bull case for HINDZINC?

A 17.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (76.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (69.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in HINDZINC?

A steep 10.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HINDZINC